"The most practical application for agent-based modeling is in marketing. MarketSim helps confront the real challenge of exploring the unexpected consequences of consumer behavior."
Michael Duffy
Former Director, Analytics and Syndicated Data
Kraft Foods, Inc.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Please choose a category below.

General questions about agent-based modeling (ABM)

Q: What is agent-based modeling?

A: Agent-based modeling or ABM is a method of modeling systems at the level of the individual "actors". These models reproduce the behavior of complicated systems, like consumer markets, better than any other technique known.

Q: What makes ABM so powerful?

A: By creating simple yet accurate "rules" describing the behaviors of individuals and their interactions, more complex behaviors arise naturally, as in real life. This accurate, higher-level behavior emerges from the model without being predefined. An ABM model can tell you things you didn't already know, rather than simply refining what you already knew.

Q: How is ABM applied to marketing?

A: In marketing, the "actors" are consumers, companies, and channels. The interactions among companies and consumers — via the marketing mix elements of price, product, distribution and promotion — produce emergent phenomena including price elasticity, response to media flighting and brand equity. The interactions reproduced within consumer populations in ABM software include word-of-mouth or "buzz" which is a significant force in many markets.

Q: What is MarketSim?

A: MarketSim is DecisionPower's flagship product. Using agent-based modeling, MarketSim provides insights into past and future consumer behavior based on any number of variables including competitive landscape, marketing mix, external influences and unforeseen events.

Q: Why hasn't ABM been more widely used in business before now?

A: Over the past 15 years, ABM has been found to be a valuable tool for specialized technical design, education and research as well as complex scientific evaluations and tools. Until recently, desktop computing power was not capable of bringing this technology to end-users. Increased processing power has enabled DecisionPower™ to create the first "productized" version of ABM software, known as MarketSim. DecisionPower has over a decade of experience applying ABM technology to real-world business environments.

Q: In what other areas does DecisionPower have ABM experience?

A: The DecisionPower team has been applying ABM for more than 15 years in categories such as interactive games (SimLife), education (ActiveChemistry), science (NASA) and business (MarketSim).

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Getting started

Q: How do I start using MarketSim?

A: Once the business issues are defined, you then gather data regarding your market including brands, competition, segments, product attributes and channels. You also need to consider the consumption habits, consumer preferences, price sensitivity, and external factors such as weather and political events. MarketSim also uses historical data to accurately calibrate the model.

Q: What is DecisionPower's role in the data collection process?

A: New users have interactive contact and regular reviews with DecisionPower to answer any questions that may arise. We help you formulate the parameters for the scenarios you wish to explore — competitors' actions, potential events, etc. Experienced users often become self-sufficient in applying MarketSim to new markets and business questions.

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How to use MarketSim

Q: What if I don't have all the data?

A: No company has all the data. Your company is making marketing decisions today, and you can begin using MarketSim with the information you are currently using to base your decisions. Often the more detailed your input data, the more detailed the answers, and the more questions you will be able to answer. Remember that this is a "living" model that evolves over time and can be refined as you learn more.

Q: How do I know I'm buying and tracking the right data?

A: MarketSim lets you know how your business will react to the data you are using. It quickly tells you the value of the data you are purchasing, what data you need to improve, and what isn't necessary.

Q: If I don't put in the right data, how can I get the right answers?

A: MarketSim lets you know which data is most important. It also allows you to forecast future outcomes based on uncertain events. You determine what these events could potentially be and MarketSim provides the answers.

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Why MarketSim?

Q: What kind of accuracy can I expect?

A: Typical brand projections will fall well within a tightly calibrated level of +/- 1% of actual.

Q: How do I know this works?

A: Agent-based modeling (ABM) is the most accurate way of replicating what actually happens in your market. We will prove this accuracy during the calibration process, when we describe historical behavior (including the hold-out period) such as category volume, sales and market share by brand.

Q: What types of information will MarketSim give me visibility into?

A: MarketSim works the way your real market works and provides insights into all marketing activities, such as price elasticity, brand equity, and response to media flighting. It also tells you what is happening in your consumers' households and minds (awareness, trial, repeat purchase, persuasion, etc.)

Q: How does MarketSim compare with Market Mix Modeling (MMM)?

A: MarketSim is not a "black box". The rules used in MarketSim explain behavior in the future as well as in the past. Compared to MMM, MarketSim is both economical and reusable. Each model can be reused as you vary your inputs and learn from the market. It is also more updatable and scalable. Best of all, MarketSim can reveal emergent behavior and other surprises, which is not possible with Market Mix Modeling.

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